By: Reuters

The palladium and rhodium markets are seen swinging to a small surplus in 2026 due to lower demand, while platinum, ruthenium and iridium will see further shortfalls, Johnson Matthey <JMAT.L> said in a report on Thursday.

All the platinum group metals were in deficit in 2025 with prices for platinum, palladium and rhodium setting multi-year highs in January 2026, before moving sharply lower in March due to rallying oil prices and a deteriorating economic outlook amid the Iran war.

The 2026 outlook for platinum group metals, used in autocatalysts that reduce vehicle emissions, sees strong prices supporting a recovery in autocatalyst recycling, while high fuel prices due to the Middle East conflict are a further downside risk to output of internal combustion engine vehicles.

"We're keeping a close eye on developments in the auto market; sales of new and used electric cars accelerated in March and if this trend continues, it could reduce PGM demand," said Rupen Raithatha, market research director at Johnson Matthey.

The Iran war may also reduce demand for PGMs from  the chemicals and other industrial sectors that use the metals as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has put petrochemical supply chains under pressure, Johnson Matthey said.

For platinum, Johnson Matthey expects a fourth year of market deficit as lower mine shipments from South Africa and Russia offset rising recycling and an expected 8% decline in demand led by growing battery electric vehicle production as well as lower jewellery and investment demand.

For palladium, which was in a deficit from 2012 to 2025, Johnson Matthey expects a surplus this year due to higher recycling and a 9% decline in demand led by outflows from exchange-traded funds and a drop in internal combustion engine vehicle production. The auto sector accounts for more than 80% of palladium demand.

Russian production dropping to the lowest level in at least 20 years will not be enough to prevent a palladium surplus, Johnson Matthey said, adding that Russian inventories of the metal, built up in 2022, were probably depleted over the past three years.

The rhodium market is expected to face a surplus due to higher recoveries from automotive scrap and a 6% fall in demand led by lower gasoline car output.

Ruthenium and iridium will be in deficit in 2026, according to Johnson Matthey's analysis. Ruthenium demand will fall by 6% due to lower use in the chemicals sector and despite data centre expansions. Iridium demand would edge higher as two large green hydrogen projects are completed in Europe.

Platinum supply and demand:

Palladium supply and demand:    

Rhodium supply and demand:     

Ruthenium supply and demand:    

Iridium supply and demand:    

 Source: Johnson Matthey's PGM Market report May 2026   

PGMs price as of May 13 2026 https://tmsnrt.rs/4f3mKMX

 (Reporting by Polina Devitt; Editing by Cynthia Osterman)