By: Zawya

Goldman Sachs said softer oil demand and easing supply disruptions have balanced out the risks in ​its oil ⁠price outlook, though it kept its 2026 average forecasts unchanged.

The ‌bank maintained its Brent and WTI crude forecasts for 2026 at $83 a barrel ​and $78 a barrel, respectively, assuming oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a ​vital waterway ​through which about 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supplies pass, gradually normalize by mid-May.

• Crude prices settled ⁠down by around 9% on Friday on reported progress towards a potential peace deal, which Goldman said could lead to a faster unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium and send prices lower in ​the near-term.
• The two sides ⁠have still ⁠not negotiated a permanent peace agreement. U.S. President Donald Trump once again suggested ​that the war could end soon, referring to ‌expected weekend talks with Tehran. Iranian Foreign Minister ⁠Abbas Araqchi said the strait was open following a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon,
• While flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain sharply reduced, Goldman said downside risks have increased if Persian Gulf supply recovers more quickly than expected, helped by lower-than-anticipated production shut-ins and ample regional storage capacity.
• The bank said pronounced weakness in oil demand, particularly in petrochemical feedstocks and jet fuel, driven ‌by high refined product prices and margins, could push ⁠prices lower.
• Preliminary estimates suggest global demand losses ​in early 2026 have been larger than more dramatic oil price spikes in 2011 and 2022, Goldman said.
• Demand weakness has been most ​evident in emerging ‌markets in Asia and Africa, where consumption tends ⁠to be more price-sensitive, it added.