By: OrePulse

The number of critical-minerals projects across Africa has expanded significantly over the past 18 months. However, actual production growth still trails far behind the pace of exploration and development work, according to data compiled jointly by Paris-based Africa Business+ and EY.

The continent's project count now stands at 658, spanning eight different commodities — a 36% increase from the 483 projects recorded in early 2025. That growth, however, hasn't been evenly distributed across project stages. Exploration-stage projects surged 82% to 198, development-stage projects climbed 70% to 129, while projects that have entered production grew by a comparatively modest 11% to 288.

EY's Gaël Tanguy summarized the dynamic, noting that Africa is laying the groundwork for future supply, buoyed by strong global demand, even though it still can't match that demand with output at the same speed.

Lithium stands out as a major driver behind this recent surge, accounting for 27 of the 32 newly added projects, spread across 13 countries and led primarily by Zimbabwe and Nigeria. However, 25 of those 27 lithium projects remain stuck at the exploration phase, suggesting this wave is more about companies staking claims to land than signaling imminent production. On average, new mines take 15 to 17 years to move from initial discovery to production. In contrast, the database also identifies 44 mine-expansion projects—half of which are already underway—that generally require less capital and carry lower development risk than building entirely new greenfield operations.

Several projects are already making tangible progress toward production. In Zambia, First Quantum Minerals reached commercial production at its Kansanshi expansion in late 2025, adding a third processing train to the operation; the company now projects copper output of between 175,000 and 205,000 tonnes this year, with that figure expected to climb to 260,000 tonnes by 2028. Meanwhile, Barrick Mining's expansion at its Lumwana operation is aiming for first copper production in the first quarter of 2028.

In the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ivanhoe Mines continues to push forward with several major copper projects despite setbacks at its Kamoa-Kakula operation. The company's Makoko district resource reached approximately 12 million tonnes of contained copper this month, with a scoping study planned to begin in early 2027. Over in South Africa, Ivanhoe's Platreef mine began producing concentrate in late 2025, with commercial-scale production anticipated by the fourth quarter of 2026, alongside a planned second-stage expansion targeting annual output exceeding 450,000 ounces of platinum-group metals and gold by the close of 2027.

On the lithium front, Kodal Minerals launched production at its Bougouni mine in Mali during 2025 and shipped its first batch of concentrate to China that same year. Separately, Atlantic Lithium secured parliamentary approval in Ghana this past March for its Ewoyaa project, which is positioned to become the country's first lithium mine. However, it remains in development.

African governments, for their part, are increasingly expanding their ownership positions in mining projects across the continent. In the DRC, publicly owned entities now hold stakes in 48% of tracked projects, up from 39% back in February 2025. Mali's mining code, updated in 2023, allows the government to hold ownership stakes of up to 35%, and its newer regulations grant the state a 35% interest specifically in B2Gold's Fekola Regional project. Meanwhile, Burkina Faso permits government stakes of up to 15%.

The database also highlights a notable overlap between African mineral production and defense-related supply chains: five of the eight commodities being tracked — cobalt, graphite, lithium, manganese and platinum — appear on NATO's 2024 list of critical defense materials, together representing 321 African projects, or roughly 49% of the total project count.

Processing infrastructure, meanwhile, remains heavily concentrated in just a handful of countries. The database tracks 101 processing facilities in total, clustered primarily in South Africa, the DRC and Zambia. Chinese companies are involved in 123 projects overall, and their footprint is especially pronounced in the DRC, where they participate in 54% of projects spanning mining, transportation, and processing infrastructure.