By: OrePulse

UBS has raised its year-end Brent crude forecast to $110 a barrel, up from $100, in its second upward revision this month, the bank said in a research note reported Wednesday, October 28, 2026. UBS pointed to Gulf crude and condensate loadings that remain below the levels seen before the regional conflict, together with sharply lower global oil inventories.

UBS had already lifted its fourth-quarter Brent forecast to $100 a barrel from about $80 on October 6, part of a rapid series of upward revisions tied to supply concerns in the Gulf. The bank's October 6 note also raised its average Brent price estimate for full-year 2026, though the precise revised figure could not be confirmed from the available reporting [uncertain]. In its latest note, UBS raised its 2027 Brent price curve by $5 a barrel at every point, putting its forecasts at $95 for March, $90 for June and $85 for September.

UBS said the uncertainty surrounding its forecasts "remains elevated," citing the pace of recovery in Gulf oil production and global demand amid the regional conflict.

Middle Eastern crude loadings have recovered substantially after severe disruptions earlier this year, UBS said, but Gulf crude and condensate port loadings have yet to return to pre-conflict levels. The bank also pointed to an unusually high number of reported attacks on shipping in the Hormuz strait during October, which it said had driven up marine insurance and freight rates. Freight rates for the large tankers that carry crude from Gulf ports to China have jumped to $30 to $40 a barrel, far above the $1 to $3 range typical over the past decade, the bank said.

Global oil inventories have fallen sharply this year, and planned releases from strategic reserves are largely complete, according to UBS. The bank cautioned that persistent undersupply could erode commercial stockpiles even further and keep prices high.

Brent crude traded at $115.30 a barrel in mid-morning trading Wednesday, up 1.25 percent, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude stood at $101.90 a barrel, up 2 percent.

A World Bank report separately projected commodity prices would climb 23 percent in 2026, citing energy markets, maritime disruptions, agricultural setbacks in the Black Sea region, and a rush toward safe-haven assets — a sharp reversal from its forecast a year earlier, which had pointed to commodity prices falling to their lowest level in six years during 2026 on expectations of an oil surplus that did not materialize.