By: OrePulse

Compagnie du TransGuinéen, the company that operates the rail and port network serving Guinea's Simandou iron ore project, is aiming to support exports of 120 million tonnes a year by the end of 2027, operations chief Matt Baartz said during a site visit.

That target sits well above the network's current throughput. Analysts at BMO Capital Markets estimate the rail-and-port logistics chain has annualized capacity of about 72 million tonnes today, far short of the 120-million-tonne goal. BMO said closing that gap depends on the delivery of additional locomotives and wagons for the rail line, as well as on the commissioning of the second stage of Morébaya port, which is due to come online by March 2027.

The 120-million-tonne figure describes the annual rate the rail and port network is designed to support, rather than a forecast of how much ore will actually be shipped in any single year.

Simandou is being developed in two halves, each feeding the same shared infrastructure. SimFer, a partnership of Rio Tinto, a Chinalco-led consortium and the Guinean government, holds mining blocks 3 and 4 and accounts for half of the project's planned mining capacity. Rio Tinto's October production update said SimFer was on track for annual output of 60 million tonnes starting in the second half of 2028. Baowu Winning Consortium Simandou, also led by Chinalco, develops blocks 1 and 2.

Ownership of Compagnie du TransGuinéen mirrors the mining side of the project. Baowu Winning Consortium Simandou and SimFer each hold 42.5% of the infrastructure company, with the Guinean government holding the remaining 15%.

Actual shipments are still well below the eventual target, though they are rising quickly. Guinea's iron ore exports rose 48% quarter-on-quarter to 8.9 million tonnes in the third quarter of 2026, from 6 million tonnes in the second quarter, according to government data. Of the third-quarter total, Baowu Winning Consortium Simandou accounted for 6.55 million tonnes and SimFer for 2.16 million tonnes. Macquarie estimated that full-year 2026 exports could reach about 28 million tonnes if October's shipping pace holds and weather conditions allow.

Forecasts for how quickly Simandou's logistics capacity will catch up to the operator's target diverge among analysts. Fearnley Securities, in an October forecast, projects the network will reach 120 million tonnes of annual capacity during 2028, a year later than Compagnie du TransGuinéen's own goal. S&P Global's Cambridge Energy Research Associates unit, in a June assessment, takes a more cautious view, expecting the full ramp-up to take more than five years and forecasting Guinean iron ore exports of about 70 million tonnes in 2028. Both analyst timelines extend beyond Compagnie du TransGuinéen's own stated goal of reaching 120 million tonnes of capacity by the end of 2027.