By: Gulf news

With December fuel prices set to be announced in a few days, UAE motorists are watching global oil trends closely for signals on the direction of rates.

Petrol and diesel prices for November 2025 declined slightly, with Super 98 now at Dh2.63 a litre compared to Dh2.77 in October, Special 95 at Dh2.51 down from Dh2.66, E-Plus 91 at Dh2.44 down from Dh2.58, and diesel at Dh2.67 compared to Dh2.71 last month.

The drop in November gives a useful starting point for analysing December’s possible adjustment.

Key observations:

• Reports that peace talks between Ukraine and Russia may be advancing raised the possibility of more stable Russian oil exports, which tends to ease price pressure.
• The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a significant global oil surplus in the year ahead as producers inside and outside OPEC+ raise output faster than demand expands.
• While Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries injected short-term volatility, the broader outlook points to increasing supply risks being mitigated.
• As US markets headed into holiday periods, liquidity fell and crude became more sensitive to headlines — meaning any calming of geopolitical risk could rapidly shift sentiment.

UAE fuel rates to drop?

The combination of lower UAE retail prices in November and the global trend toward softer oil pricing suggests a higher likelihood of another decrease or a very modest increase when December rates are announced.

Given the current backdrop, the following scenario seems most plausible:

• A small drop in pump prices for December is more likely than a hike.
• The magnitude of any reduction could be modest, reflecting the fact that supply concerns and geopolitics still inject uncertainty.
• If unexpected geopolitical disruption occurs or supply tightens, the adjustment could instead be flat or show only a slight increase.

Final take?

For motorists in the UAE, the reduction in November prices offers some relief. If global oil markets continue to soften, December’s rates may fall again or hold steady. With the announcement approaching, drivers should monitor announcements and plan accordingly.