By: Economy Middle east

Oil prices showed minimal movement on Monday following a more than 2 percent rise in the prior session. Supply concerns offset the impact of U.S. production disruptions from severe winter weather. 

Brent crude increased by 24 cents, or 0.37 percent, reaching $65.31. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose by 27 cents, or 0.44 percent, to $61.34.

Weather disruptions

Winter Storm Fern has caused significant outages in key U.S. regions, including North Dakota’s Bakken field, Oklahoma, and Texas Permian Basin areas. JPMorgan estimates 250,000 barrels per day (bpd) offline, tightening physical flows despite ample global inventories. North Dakota’s Williston Basin saw a 7 percent drop (80,000-110,000 bpd) as temperatures hit -16°F, with Permian risks from sleet and subzero forecasts. Priyanka Sachdeva of Phillip Nova notes these events add a mild bullish tilt but are tempered by 2026 oversupply risks unless OPEC+ cuts deepen. 

Geopolitical tensions

A U.S. carrier strike group, led by the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72), is en route from the South China Sea to CENTCOM’s Middle East area, arriving soon amid U.S.-Iran frictions. U.S. President Trump warned Iran against protester crackdowns or nuclear restarts, posting “HELP IS ON ITS WAY” and threatening 25 percent tariffs on nations trading with Tehran, spiking call options volatility. Iranian officials called potential strikes “all-out battle,” while U.S. alerts limit Qatar base travel; this risk premium supports prices despite Iran’s modest output. 

Kazakhstan update

The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) resumed full capacity at its Black Sea terminal Sunday after mooring maintenance, easing prior bottlenecks from drone damage and repairs. Handling 1.5 percent of global oil (80 percent Kazakhstan exports), full SPM-3 operations restore two active moorings, reducing supply fears.