By: Energy now

A few months ago, it would have seemed unlikely, but OPEC+ has successfully managed to bring back 2.5 million barrels per day of crude production while keeping oil prices stable around $70 a barrel.

The group, including eight key members, agreed to wind back their voluntary cuts by September and granted an additional increase to the United Arab Emirates. They justify this move by citing a strong global economy and low oil inventories.

However, this justification is debatable. Data shows that oil demand in Asia, the top-importing region, has been weak, with July imports hitting their lowest in a year. While China has been buying more, it's likely due to lower prices and a strategy to add to its strategic stockpiles.

Instead, OPEC+ appears to have been fortunate. Its production increases have coincided with rising geopolitical risks that have supported prices. Key events include:

The brief Israel-Iran conflict in June, which briefly spiked prices and halted a previous downtrend.

Threats from U.S. President Donald Trump of wide-ranging sanctions on buyers of Russian oil unless Moscow agrees to a ceasefire with Ukraine.

These sanctions could significantly disrupt the market. India and China are the major buyers of Russian crude, and if India (which gets 40% of its oil from Russia) is forced to find new suppliers, it would severely tighten global supplies and push prices higher.

For now, OPEC+ is using this uncertainty to its advantage to restore production and regain market share. The big question is how long this strategy can last, as a potential loss of Russian barrels could be offset by weakening demand later in the year if Trump's trade wars slow global economic growth.