By: Ecofin agency

For the second straight month, Nigeria has pumped crude oil above the limit set by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The group’s monthly report, published on Tuesday, August 12, showed average output at 1.507 million barrels per day (b/d) in July, up slightly from 1.505 million b/d in June.

This exceeds the country’s quota of 1.5 million b/d. The increase comes as Nigeria prepares to ask for a higher ceiling at the next OPEC ministerial meeting on Sunday, November 30.

Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) shows total oil production reached 1.78 million b/d in July, helped by the restart of idle facilities and improved security in the Niger Delta.

The overproduction coincides with OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) gradually restoring 2.2 million b/d of output that had been voluntarily cut since 2023 to support prices. The cuts have been eased in phases: 411,000 b/d in May, June, July, and August, followed by 547,000 b/d in September, which will mark the end of the voluntary reductions. The move will raise global supply, increasing competition for market share and national quotas.

In 2022 and 2023, Nigeria consistently produced 300,000 to 500,000 b/d below its quota of 1.8 million b/d due to technical problems, vandalism of oil infrastructure, and delayed maintenance.

By exceeding its quota for two consecutive months, Nigeria seeks to prove it has regained production capacity even as OPEC+ raises output. This underpins the country’s goal, announced in May, to lift its quota to 2 million b/d by 2027.

The November negotiations will determine whether Nigeria can turn this display of capacity into an officially higher quota.