By: ISPI

The unexpected fall of the Assad regime in Syria has significantly damaged Russia's reputation as a reliable ally in the Middle East, particularly among Gulf states that had viewed Moscow as a steadfast counterweight to the United States. Analysts note that Russia’s inability to prevent Assad’s collapse or control Iranian-aligned militias in Syria has undermined its narrative as an indispensable regional power, reviving Gulf doubts about Moscow's dependability. Following the regime change, Saudi Arabia has scaled back political coordination with Russia, limiting engagement largely to energy diplomacy within OPEC+, where tensions over output levels have surfaced.

Despite this setback, Russia remains strategically relevant to the Gulf. Countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia are hedging their bets by deepening ties with the U.S. and China, but they continue to value Russia as one pole in an increasingly multipolar world. Economic and diplomatic outreach persists, evidenced by growing tourism links, new direct flight routes, and high-level visits, such as the UAE President’s trip to Moscow in August 2025. Russia is also employing a “point approach” to foster collaboration in specific sectors like technology, healthcare, and mining, as seen in agreements with Qatar and participation in forums like Innoprom.

In the short term, while Russia's prestige has diminished and Gulf states are diversifying their partnerships, Moscow is adapting by expanding beyond traditional energy and arms trade into targeted economic diplomacy, ensuring it retains a role in Gulf strategic calculations.