By: Logistics middle east

The global air cargo market is entering a phase of moderated growth as it transitions into 2026. According to industry reports, global air cargo demand expanded by 4% year-on-year through October 2025, supported by e-commerce, technology hardware related to AI infrastructure, and time-sensitive industrial goods, primarily on lanes out of Asia. However, momentum has softened, with expectations for low single-digit growth in the first quarter of 2026.

A key factor is the tightening of supply, with global air cargo capacity declining by approximately 2% year-on-year as of November 2025. This contraction has been driven by a sharp reduction in dedicated freighter availability, as operators manage fleet utilization. While recovering passenger belly-hold capacity has provided some relief, it has not fully offset the freighter shortfall.

Airlines continue to signal long-term confidence through selective investments, such as Ethiopian Airlines expanding its A350 fleet and Air China Cargo ordering six new Airbus A350F freighters. Regional trends remain uneven, with strong performance from carriers in the Middle East leveraging their east-west connectivity, while Europe's manufacturing sector shows signs of weakness.