By: Economy Middle east

Copper prices have surged to nearly $12,000 per metric ton, marking the metal’s strongest annual gain since 2009 amid intensifying supply disruptions and robust global demand. This rally reflects a perfect storm of mine outages, strategic stockpiling ahead of potential U.S. tariffs, and escalating needs from energy transition and AI infrastructure projects. 

Supply disruptions tighten market

Major production setbacks have created acute shortages in the copper market. A September 2025 mudslide at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine, one of the world’s largest copper operations, slashed output forecasts and contributed to global supply deficits. Unplanned outages at multiple mines worldwide have compounded the issue, with smelters recently accepting zero-dollar processing fees per ton—the lowest on record—signaling extreme stress on refined copper availability. 

Shipments to the United States have accelerated dramatically as traders front-load imports to dodge anticipated tariffs under President Donald Trump’s administration. This U.S.-bound rush threatens to starve other markets, exacerbating the imbalance. Benchmark London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper futures recently hit $11,434.50 per ton before climbing 0.7 percent to $11,966.50 in Shanghai trading, with aluminum, zinc, and nickel also advancing. 

Demand surge from green and tech sectors

Copper’s role in the energy transition and emerging technologies underpins the demand boom. Renewable energy projects, electric vehicles (EVs), and grid modernization require four times more copper than traditional fossil fuel systems, yet new mines take 10-15 years to develop. China’s infrastructure push—including AI data centers, urbanization, and grid upgrades—accounts for half of global consumption and has reignited after fiscal stimulus measures. 

In advanced economies, manufacturing recovery has boosted usage in electrical equipment, construction, and transportation. Europe’s business activity expanded at its fastest pace in over two years in November 2025, adding bullish momentum. AI infrastructure expansion strains supplies further, as data centers demand vast wiring and cooling systems heavy in copper. 

Price trajectory and 2025 performance

Copper prices have rocketed about 36 percent year-to-date, outpacing historical rallies and hitting multiple records throughout 2025. Earlier peaks included $11,333 per ton in early December amid a weaker U.S. dollar and supply fears. A brief uptick in October followed U.S.-China trade truce hopes, though tensions persist. 

Analysts remain optimistic. Citigroup forecasts $13,000 per ton by Q2 2026, driven by sustained U.S. demand, while Goldman Sachs names copper its top metal pick for the year ahead. J.P. Morgan projects an average of $12,500 per metric ton in Q2 2026 following ongoing disruptions. Algorithmic trading models flash buy signals, with experts like Dan Smith of Commodity Market Analytics eyeing $12,000 as a near-term target.