By: The insider Africa

The military junta led by Assimi Goïta in Mali, which seized power through two coups and is backed by Russian mercenaries from the African Corps, is facing an existential threat. The capital city, Bamako, is under a effective siege by Al-Qaeda-affiliated jihadists, primarily from the group Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin. These militants have successfully blocked the main roads into the city, severely disrupting the delivery of essential goods, particularly fuel, causing prices to skyrocket and creating a humanitarian crisis.

This crisis represents a significant failure for Russia's strategy in the region. Goïta’s junta aligned itself with Moscow, expelling French forces and UN peacekeepers to bring in Russian mercenaries in exchange for financial support and access to Mali's mineral wealth. However, the Russian forces have been accused of committing war crimes and have failed to secure the country or protect the capital from the jihadist advance, leading to a sharp decline in Russian influence.

The economic situation in Bamako is dire. By the end of October 2025, the price of a liter of fuel had soared to over $130, which is more than the average monthly salary. This has caused the cost of all other goods, including food, to rise precipitously, leading to widespread panic and chaos. The United States and European countries have evacuated their diplomats, recognizing the extreme instability.

The jihadists are employing asymmetric warfare tactics, avoiding a direct assault on the well-defended capital. Instead, they focus on controlling the countryside and intercepting supply convoys. Their strategy aims to strangle the junta economically and erode its remaining popular support by sowing chaos, with some success in winning over rural populations alienated by military violence.

A key objective for the jihadists is to gain control of Mali's vast mineral resources, particularly its gold mines, which are currently held by the junta and its Russian allies. If the junta falls, Al-Qaeda would be significantly strengthened, gaining a massive source of funding and a strategic foothold in the region, potentially turning Mali into a Saharan counterpart to Somalia, with a weak central government and powerful, resource-controlling militant groups.

Internally, the junta is weakened and preoccupied with finding scapegoats rather than implementing an effective strategy to break the siege. There are reports of discontent within the Malian armed forces, partly due to abuse suffered at the hands of Russian mercenaries. The regime's collapse could lead to another coup or the rise of factions willing to negotiate with the jihadists, a strategy that failed for previous governments.

The situation poses a grave regional threat. Malian jihadists have already demonstrated their reach by carrying out an attack in Nigeria. A successful takeover by Al-Qaeda in Mali would not only provide them with immense resources but also create a safe haven from which to destabilize neighboring countries, marking a dramatic shift in the balance of power in the Sahel.