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Publié par OrePulse

Publié le : 09 sept., 2026 11:45

Platinum market to post first annual surplus since 2022 on investment outflows, WPIC says

The global platinum market will swing to a surplus for the first time since 2022 this year due to weaker investment and jewellery demand, the World Platinum Investment Council said.

Spot platinum prices <XPT=> are down 10% so far this year to $1,840 per troy ounce as the Middle East conflict and bets on higher interest rates stalled momentum in a gold-led rally that drove platinum up 127% in 2025 to a record high of $2,919 per ounce in January.

The WPIC currently expects the surplus in the platinum market at 265,000 troy ounces this year compared with a 297,000 ounces deficit it estimated three months ago.

The shift is mainly due to outflows from the platinum-backed exchange-traded funds that occurred during the first half of the year, when the surplus touched 548,000 ounces, said Edward Sterck, head of research at the WPIC.

The market effectively returned to deficit conditions in the second half of 2026 as ETF selling has bottomed out and saw some modest buying over the last few weeks, Sterck added.

Providing support to platinum prices, from the WPIC's point of view, will be relatively low above-ground stocks - unallocated vaulted inventory available to balance the market - reduced by three previous years of market deficit to around 14 weeks of demand.

In the second quarter, platinum demand fell 16% year-on-year to 1.7 million ounces, with net investment outflows of 121,000 ounces and a 32% drop in jewellery demand, led by higher prices and weaker demand in China. Demand from the auto sector fell by 6%.

At the same time, total platinum supply rose 1% year-on-year to 1.9 million ounces due to a 9% increase in recycling.

PLATINUM SUPPLY/DEMAND ('000 oz)*

	2024	2025	2026f	2025/2024 change	2026f/2025 change	Q2 2025	Q1 2026	Q2 2026
SUPPLY
Refined production:	5,777	5,557	5,551	-4%	0%	1,446	1,329	1,474
- South Africa	4,133	3,957	4,005	-4%	1%		1,044	1,014	1,082
- Zimbabwe	512	515	508	1%	-1%		137	90	152
- North America	265	212	201	-20%	-5%		58	47	47
- Russia	677	677	646	0%	-5%		158	136	148
- Other	191	196	192	3%	-2%		49	41	47
Change in producer inventory	+10	+4	+0				+21	+11	-34
Total mining supply	5,787	5,561	5,551	-4%	0%		1,467	1,340	1,441
Recycling:	1,536	1,669	1,802	9%	8%		429	459	466
- Autocatalyst	1,163	1,232	1,422	6%	15%		319	354	374
- Jewellery	298	356	293	20%	-18%		90	84	68
- Industrial	76	81	88	7%	8%		20	21	23
TOTAL SUPPLY	7,323	7,231	7,353	-1%	2%		1,896	1,799	1,906
DEMAND
Automotive	3,110	3,039	2,904	-2%	-4%		778	735	729
Jewellery	2,008	2,214	1,883	10%	-15%		671	461	456
Industrial:	2,588	2,266	2,385	-12%	5%		567	570	600
- Chemical	645	563	613	-13%	9%		147	135	138
- Petroleum	159	182	132	14%	-28%		45	33	31
- Electrical	93	99	118	6%	19%		24	27	29
- Glass	739	430	528	-42%	23%		111	129	156
- Medical	308	321	332	4%	4%		80	78	81
- Hydrogen stationary	40	71	77	77%	8%		11	20	19
- Other	603	600	586	0%	-2%		149	147	145
Investment:	713	1,152	-83	62%	N/A		-45	-270	-121
- Change in bars/coins	205	402	313	96%	-22%		128	105	37
- China Bars ≥ 500g	162	165	106	2%	-36%		47	44	21
- Change in ETF Holdings	296	200	-389	-32%	N/A		97	-300	-234
- Change in stocks held by exchanges	50	384	-112				-317	-119	54
TOTAL DEMAND	8,418	8,671	7,089	3%	-18%		1,971	1,495	1,663
Balance	-1,096	-1,440	265				-76	304	244
Above ground stocks	3,186	1,745	2,010	-45%	15%