By: Atlantic council

As 2025 concludes, senior analysts at the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs have identified key trends likely to shape the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in 2026. The past year saw significant regional shifts, including a new political landscape in Syria after the fall of the Assad regime, the Twelve Day War involving Israel, Iran, and the United States, and landmark elections in Iraq. These developments occurred amid a shift in U.S. diplomatic approaches under a new administration.

Looking ahead, the analysts highlight several critical economic and political trajectories. Three major macro trends are expected to define the regional economy in 2026: pressure from lower energy revenues forcing more disciplined fiscal decisions, rising debt levels as governments finance ambitious infrastructure and technology projects, and the tenth anniversary of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, which will serve as a regional benchmark for transitioning from resource-based to human capital-driven growth.

In addition, experts are monitoring evolving demands for justice and resource-driven protests, the rising priority of North Africa in U.S. foreign policy, unresolved questions regarding Palestinian governance, efforts to sustain stability in Iraq, Iran’s approaching political transition, the durability of the Israel-Iran cease-fire, and the region’s overall potential for both conflict and cooperation in the coming year.