By: Economy Middle east

Oil prices steadied around $61 per barrel for WTI and $65 for Brent on Wednesday, pausing a recent rally after Venezuela resumed key crude shipments. This halt in gains came amid easing supply fears from Latin America, though looming risks in Iran kept traders cautious. Global markets reflected a delicate balance between renewed Venezuelan exports and geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East.

Brent crude traded near $65.25 per barrel, down slightly by 0.34 percent from the prior session, while WTI hovered near $60.93 after a four-day surge exceeding 9 percent. Prices had climbed earlier in the week, with WTI hitting $64.74 on January 13 before retreating. This pause aligned with seasonal demand softness and ample global supplies, as inventories in China and the U.S. remained elevated. 

Venezuela shipments resume

Venezuela’s state oil firm PDVSA restarted exports with at least two supertankers, the Kelly and Marbella, departing on January 13 carrying 1.8 million barrels each of Merey heavy crude. These non-sanctioned vessels marked the first moves under a potential U.S.-Venezuela deal for 50 million barrels, following policy shifts under President Trump that eased prior embargoes. The country also began reopening shut wells, reversing output cuts and adding supply to Caribbean storage hubs. This influx pressured prices downward, countering recent gains. 

Iran tensions persist

Investor focus shifted to Iran, where political unrest and U.S. rhetoric raised fears of disruptions to its 3.3 million barrels-per-day production. President Trump urged ongoing protests via Truth Social, canceling meetings with Iranian officials amid reports of thousands dead, prompting Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh to vow full defense. Barclays estimated this added a $3-4 per barrel geopolitical risk premium, widening Brent’s spread over Dubai benchmarks. Any escalation could target energy flows, potentially sparking another rally despite abundant supplies. 

OPEC+ holds firm on output cuts

OPEC+ maintained steady output, pausing planned February-March 2026 increases while enforcing cuts totaling over 3.8 million bpd, including deepened compensation from Iraq, UAE, Kazakhstan, and Oman up to 829,000 bpd by June. Global production growth outpaced demand, with U.S., Canada, and Guyana adding barrels, leading to projected inventory builds of 2.8 million bpd in 2026. EIA forecasts foresaw Brent averaging $56 in 2026, down from 2025 highs, as supply flexibility from OPEC+ anchored prices. 

Analysts see short-term upside potential toward $69 if Iran risks intensify, but a bearish correction to $64 support looms amid Venezuela’s rebound. Longer-term, forecasts diverge: EIA eyes $54-56 Brent averages through 2027 on oversupply, while others warn of volatility between $41-166 depending on geopolitics. Trump’s Venezuela reconstruction plan, including $100 billion investments, could further boost non-OPEC supply, tempering rallies. Traders eyed a White House meeting on Iran for signals, balancing resumption risks against production discipline.