By: Utilities Middle east

Kuwait is pushing ahead with plans to expand renewable power generation more than fifteenfold by 2030, but analysts warn that the Gulf state is unlikely to meet its target on time.

Renewables currently account for less than 1% of Kuwait’s electricity supply. The government aims to raise that share to 15% by 2030, with natural gas acting as a transitional fuel. However, Rystad Energy projects that renewable capacity will only reach 3.3 gigawatts (GW) by the end of the decade – about 7% of generation – with the 15% milestone more realistically achieved by 2035. By that point, renewable capacity is expected to exceed 11 GW and account for around 20% of Kuwait’s power generation.

Rising demand strains the grid

Kuwait’s total installed capacity stands at 21 GW, but only about 17 GW is reliably available in peak summer months due to maintenance and the age of its plants. With temperatures soaring above 50°C in recent years, demand peaked at 17.7 GW in July, while unplanned outages created shortages of more than 1.5 GW during peak demand in May.

“The blackouts have underscored the strain on Kuwait’s power system, making imports unavoidable if such outages persist,” said Nishant Kumar, Analyst, Renewables & Power Research at Rystad Energy.

Despite reliability concerns raised by recent global events, Kumar said it would be “myopic to dismiss the capabilities of renewables outright.” Kuwait enjoys more than 3,300 hours of sunshine annually, providing strong potential for solar PV generation, particularly in meeting peak afternoon demand.

Gas is to play a vital role

While renewables scale up, natural gas is set to shoulder a greater share of Kuwait’s power mix. Rystad Energy forecasts gas-fired power generation will rise by 17% to 77 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2030, with domestic gas production climbing 38% and overall demand up 30% over the next five years.

To secure supply, Kuwait is building five large gas-fired plants that will add 18 GW of capacity by 2035, lifting total gas power capacity to more than 32 GW, from 14 GW today. At the same time, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation has signed a 15-year agreement with QatarEnergy to import up to 3 million tonnes per annum of LNG.

Kuwait secures gas to meet power demand

The strategy also supports Kuwait’s push to reduce reliance on oil for power generation, which currently makes up around 40% of domestic energy needs. By shifting to gas, the country aims to free up more crude for export, maximising oil revenues that remain central to government finances.

Securing supply beyond oil cuts

Kuwait’s annual gas demand is around 24–25 billion cubic metres (Bcm), with about 40% covered by LNG imports and 35% from associated gas production. This reliance on associated gas makes Kuwait vulnerable to OPEC+ crude output cuts, which directly limit supply. To reduce this risk, Kuwait has ramped up investment in non-associated gas, particularly from the onshore Jurassic project in the north of the country. Non-associated gas now provides around 600 million cubic feet per day, meeting roughly 25% of domestic demand.