By: Oil & gas Middle east

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has called for a renewed focus on upstream oil and gas investment, warning that global production could fall sharply without new development.

In its latest report, The Implications of Oil and Gas Field Decline Rates, the agency said that by 2050, maintaining current production levels would require over 45 million barrels per day of oil and around 2,000 billion cubic metres of natural gas from new conventional fields.

The report highlights how previous market disruptions – including the US shale boom, the oil price crashes of 2014-2015 and 2020, and uncertainty over long-term oil demand – have discouraged investment in large, long-lead conventional projects. At the launch of the report, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol warned: “An absence of upstream investment would remove the equivalent of Brazil and Norway’s combined production each year from the global market balance. The industry has to run much faster just to stand still.”

The report underscores the importance of understanding decline rates, the annual decrease in output from existing oil and gas fields, as a critical factor for assessing future supply, energy security, and market balances.

Based on analysis of production from around 15,000 global oil and gas fields, the IEA found that accelerating decline rates and growing reliance on unconventional resources could significantly affect the outlook for global supply.

OPEC has previously urged timely investment to offset decline rates and meet rising demand. The IEA report signals a shift in tone, stressing that consistent investment in new conventional oil and gas projects is essential to avoid supply shortfalls.

The report also provides regional insights and examines how evolving project development patterns will influence global oil and gas markets in the coming decades, emphasising that both demand and supply uncertainties must be considered in energy planning.