By: Ecofin agency

The global platinum market is expected to remain in deficit in 2026 for the fourth consecutive year, according to the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC), despite a modest rise in supply and a partial recovery in South African output after a challenging 2025.

The WPIC forecasts a market deficit of 297,000 ounces in 2026. While significantly lower than the estimated shortfall of 1.19 million ounces in 2025, the projection suggests the market will remain undersupplied. Total supply is expected to reach 7.37 million ounces, up 2% year-on-year, driven mainly by higher recycling volumes.

Recycling supply is forecast to rise 9% as elevated prices encourage the recovery of platinum from used catalytic converters and jewelry resale. Global mined production, however, is expected to remain broadly unchanged at 5.55 million ounces.

South Africa edges higher after weak 2025

South Africa, the world’s largest platinum producer, is expected to post modest growth after a difficult 2025. Refined output fell 4% last year, declining from 4.13 million ounces in 2024 to 3.95 million ounces in 2025, partly due to flooding that disrupted operations.

The WPIC expects South African production to recover to 4 million ounces in 2026, supported by restored processing operations at Implats and the gradual ramp-up of Ivanhoe Mines’ Platreef project.

Commissioned at the end of 2025, Platreef is not expected to reach full production capacity of around 200,000 ounces annually for another three years. In Zimbabwe, the world’s third-largest platinum producer after South Africa and Russia, output is projected to remain broadly stable at 508,000 ounces in 2026, compared with 516,000 ounces the previous year.

Investment demand weakens

On the demand side, the expected decline is mainly linked to weaker investment demand following large shifts in exchange inventories and platinum-backed fund holdings in 2025. Industrial demand is forecast to rise 9%, while automotive and jewelry demand are expected to decline 2% and 12%, respectively.

The continuing supply-demand imbalance is expected to support prices. According to the World Bank, platinum prices surged 30% in the first quarter of 2026, hitting a record high in January before easing through April.

The World Bank expects platinum prices to rise by an average of around 53% over the full year before declining 13% in 2027 as supply conditions improve and demand moderates. According to the WPIC, the persistent market deficit could reduce available inventories to less than three months of global demand.