By:Miningmx

THE supply deficit forecast for platinum by the World Platinum Investment Council in March had widened further, the organisation said on Monday.

Based on first quarter data, supplied by Metals Focus, the council estimated a deficit of 966,000 ounces for 2025 compared to an deficit estimate of 848,000 oz previously.

One of the major factors in its assessment is weakening supply, especially from South Africa. Rainfall disruption reported by Impala Platinum and Anglo American Platinum might be more significant than first anticipated.

Forecast total supply in 2025, including from recycling, is the lowest in five years, declining by 4% to 6.99 million oz, the WPIC said. Of this, first quarter mined supply fell 13% year-on-year to 1.16 million oz, below levels last seen before Covid.

The impact of rainfall would have a greater impact on the minor metals produced in the platinum group metals (PGM) suite, the council’s director of research, Ed Sterck.

“Anecdotally, it sounds like the potential impact of the floods up in the northern part of the Bushveld felt might be more extreme than people anticipated,” he said in an interview with Miningmx. “The outlook for rhodium, ruthenium and iridium could be actually pretty strong this year.”

Rhodium has been the best price performer in 2025 gaining 20%, according to Johnson Matthey. Platinum has gained 11%. Despite the metal performing strongly against other indices the price gains were still not reflective of the market’s fundamentals.

“I think if you look at the trading range for the last four-and-a-half years, it’s clearly tapering. So, you know, we’re seeing lower highs and higher lows. And so that usually is a precursor to a [price] breakout.”

“This is the third year of an almost a million ounce deficit. And above ground stocks by the end of this year will have reduced to three months of demand cover [from four months forecast by the WPIC previously].

“
I’d be hesitant to say that we’re on the cusp of things because, frankly, the market has got a very good ability to disappoint in terms of timing. But, you know, at some point it has to [break out].”

One muddying factor across the metals industry in general is the tariff regime unveiled by US President Donald Trump. The timing of the tariff implementation for automotives has changed since April 2 when they were first launched (as Liberation Day). As they currently stand, 25% is levied on foreign vehicles now. Then a 15% to 25% tariff will fall due on automotive parts containing foreign parts, but only over the next two years. This is following an industry pushback when the tariffs were first announced.

The WPIC said in its first quarter report platinum’s fundamental strength outweighed geopolitics, but there is nonetheless some impact from tariffs on vehicles and vehicle parts.

“On our numbers, every 1% increase in vehicle prices in the US decreases demand by half percent for new vehicles,” said Sterck.

“Overall, we’ve got a 50,000 oz reduction to automotive demand linked to US tariffs this year,” said Sterck. “
I was a bit surprised when I initially saw the numbers – at how small that was – but now I’ve had time to think upon it. I feel it’s a pretty reasonable estimate”.