By: Gulf news

Gold grabbed the headlines in 2025, but the bigger percentage shocks came from silver and platinum. Both metals have surged more than 130% year to date, forcing investors, jewellers, and industrial buyers to reprice what “expensive” looks like and to rethink what 2026 could bring if supply stays tight and trade tensions keep rewriting commodity flows.

Platinum has been the cleaner story in recent weeks. It hit a record above $2,300 an ounce, driven by a squeeze in available metal and a scramble to position for potential US trade restrictions. Silver has been the more volatile one, pushed higher by a mix of industrial demand and fast money that tends to amplify rallies, then punish hesitation.

What matters for consumers is not the headline record, but the knock-on effect. Platinum is used in jewellery and in automotive supply chains, so price spikes can filter into retail costs and industrial budgets. Silver sits at the intersection of investor demand and manufacturing demand, which means any 2026 slowdown risk could show up faster in prices than it would for gold.

Silver’s rally is not just hype

Vijay Valecha, CIO at Century Financial, said silver’s 2025 surge reflects both tightness and speculation, and the line between the two has blurred because the market has been pulling hard on physical supply.

“Silver is experiencing a combination of genuine tightness in supply and speculation,” he said. “Firstly, we are now seeing a decline in COMEX inventories as investors are demanding physical Silver over cash settlement in the futures market. The fall in inventories of Silver is faster than the fall in inventories of gold. As demand outstrips supply, prices have risen and as a result ETF flows have strengthened.”

Valecha also pointed to silver’s industrial bid as a core pillar that differentiates it from a pure safe haven trade.

“Silver is required for industrial demand,” he said. “As mine operations cannot keep up with growing demand, a gap arises. With these fundamental factors in place, naturally, investors are placing bets that Silver will rise even further, building on the momentum and leading to speculative trades.”

That mix is what makes silver exciting, and dangerous. The same momentum that drives record highs can flip into sharp corrections when positioning gets crowded or when macro data surprises.

“We can see a combination of physical market strain and a rise in leveraged bets,” Valecha said, flagging that trading activity can build on real shortages, then overshoot. “The momentum for speculative trades may build on actual supply constraints, leading to prices to rise before a correction.”

For 2026, Valecha expects silver to move more in ranges than in a straight line, even if the fundamentals stay constructive.

“Even though silver has risen by 141% year to date, the fundamentals remain quite constructive,” he said. “Looking ahead to 2026, silver may potentially continue to increase at a healthy pace. This is because, macroeconomically, an easing of US monetary policy will be favourable for precious metals.”

He added that the industrial narrative has not gone away.

“Demand for silver continues to rise due to its critical role in EVs, batteries, solar photovoltaics and AI data centres, while inventories across Shanghai and COMEX continue to thin,” he said.

His upside scenario is clear, but it comes with the warning that pullbacks are part of the trade.

“Silver is more likely to move in ranges rather than rise in a straight line. Healthy pullbacks are possible along the way,” Valecha said. “If deficits are exacerbated further, we may see silver inching towards $90-100/oz.”

Even though silver has risen by 141% year to date, the fundamentals remain quite constructive. Looking ahead to 2026, silver may potentially continue to increase at a healthy pace. This is because, macroeconomically, an easing of US monetary policy will be favourable for precious metals. As interest rates fall, investors will allocate capital to precious metals, as they are non-yielding assets.

Platinum’s move is being driven by scarcity

Platinum’s rally has felt more mechanical. Global supply has been disrupted, inventories have tightened in key hubs, and traders have been shifting metal across regions to hedge the risk that tariffs could make future imports costlier.

Wael Makarem, Lead Financial Markets Strategist at Exness, said trade policy is no longer a background theme for metals.

“Geopolitics and trade policy have become key forces driving commodity prices like platinum, silver and gold, and their influence is likely to grow heading into 2026,” he said. “Tariffs and trade tensions are among the top concerns for US businesses, and could continue to influence prices. In this regard, fears over new import duties have already prompted investors to shift platinum stocks into US warehouses, tightening supply in London and triggering squeezes that helped propel prices higher.”

That matters because platinum is already a thinner market than gold or silver. When liquidity is limited, a relatively small shift in where metal is stored can cause outsized price moves.

The other force is China, where demand and trading activity can change the tone quickly.

“China’s growing demand for platinum and silver markets has been a major driver of the 2025 rally and is likely to remain significant into 2026,” Makarem said. “China launched new platinum and palladium futures contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange in late 2025, which immediately boosted local trading activity and helped drive prices higher. Since GFEX began trading PGMs, London platinum prices jumped, underscoring the impact of Chinese speculation and investment.”

He also warned that high prices can test demand in the short term, even if the structural story remains supportive.

“However, high prices can test the durability of demand over the short term,” Makarem said.

If US trade probes are resolved without punitive measures, the incentive to hoard metal in US warehouses could fade. This could trigger inventory unwinding, ease supply tightness and place downward pressure on prices. A sharp slowdown in China’s economy, particularly in key sectors such as electric vehicles and solar, would also weigh on industrial demand, especially for silver.
Not gold this time, silver and platinum are the metals shocking buyers into 2026

What investors should watch in 2026

Both metals have the same problem heading into 2026. They look supported, but they are priced for a lot of good news already.

Makarem said the fundamentals can still back further gains, but volatility risk is now part of the base case, not a tail risk.

“While the strong performance of silver and platinum compared to gold and other assets creates important correction risks, both metals remain well supported,” he said. “Structural deficits persist for both, with platinum facing ongoing supply tightness and silver benefiting from rising demand in AI-related technologies and solar production.”

For retail investors, the practical difference between silver and platinum is how violently they can swing, and how quickly sentiment can change when industrial demand expectations move.

“Silver and platinum each offer distinct risk/reward profiles,” Makarem said. “Both metals are less liquid than gold. Silver benefits from a larger market and active ETFs, while platinum’s liquidity is thinner and dominated by industrial demand.”

He added that the 2025 surge leaves little room for complacency.

“Due to the large rise in 2025, both silver and platinum carry substantial downside risk,” he said. “They also have greater economic sensitivity. This means in a downturn or recession scenario for 2026, both could correct sharply as industrial demand falls.”

On what could derail the rally, Makarem flagged one issue that investors often miss in record markets. The fastest drops can come when the original reason for hoarding disappears.

“If US trade probes are resolved without punitive measures, the incentive to hoard metal in US warehouses could fade,” he said. “This could trigger inventory unwinding, ease supply tightness and place downward pressure on prices.”

He said investors should watch US trade policy signals, China’s manufacturing momentum, interest rate expectations, and physical market indicators.

Silver and platinum are no longer behaving like slow-moving precious metals. They trade like tight industrial commodities, with a speculative layer on top. That tends to bring higher highs and faster drops.