By: Creamer media

That impression turned out to be beyond correct when Dmitry Izotov, the director of Nornickel's Palladium Center, outlined the centre’s strategy to develop new palladium applications beyond the automotive sector at this year’s high-spirited PGMs Industry Day, where hydrogen-enabling PGM horizons also resurfaced amid Northam Platinum’s promising China findings.

Speaking during a panel discussion on quantifying PGMs demand in automotive and non-automotive applications, Izotov focused on three potential major long-term growth areas where the Palladium Center was concentrating development efforts.

The first of these centred on solar energy, which he hailed as "the main alternative source of energy, the future source of energy”.

Putting forward his contentions that current silicon solar cells have reached a maximum efficiency of around 30% and describing their thickness as rendering them relatively costly to produce, Izotov reported a transitioning to tandem PV panels combining silicon with perovskite materials. "The perovskite has a wider fill factor, so it can better catch the light during sunset and sunrise," Izotov contended. On that basis, PV panels that combine silicon with perovskite materials uplift efficiency, while their thinness cuts costs.

Of the two types of palladium-based products that are being developed by his company for this sector, the first is an additive to the perovskite active layer that has already demonstrated a 15% efficiency boost in testing, and the second is a tandem cell configuration with three palladium layers designed to address lifetime issues by leveraging palladium's proven barrier function characteristics for microelectronics applications.

"We really think it is a big opportunity for palladium, because currently in China the largest solar panel producers do not have this technology ready," Izotov reported. "By the end of the year we will have this first prototype and we expect to distribute these technologies to the big Chinese market."

The projected new demand for palladium is 0.5-million to one-million ounces a year from around 2030 to 2035.

Microelectronics 

Microelectronics, where gold dominates with nine-million ounces of annual demand, was highlighted as a second potential major long-term growth area. "It's still nine-million ounces, so it's like palladium total demand. For our PGM metals, it's a huge opportunity and a huge market," he noted.

With data centres for AI driving demand for next-generation printed circuit boards (PCBs) and high gold prices creating cost pressures, two product streams are being developed, one being new gold-palladium layer combinations that reduce gold content while increasing palladium, and the other using palladium-copper bonding wires to replace gold-based applications.

Izotov expressed the belief that while there was room for more gold reduction, gold would remain a perfect metal in terms of electroconductivity and corrosion resistance, but in smaller volumes.

The projected new demand is for at least one-million ounces a year, again from around 2030 to 2035.

Lithium-Sulphur batteries

The third potential major long-term growth area where the Palladium Center is concentrating development efforts is in lithium-sulphur battery technology, which it sees as offering advantages over lithium-ion batteries in several fields of application. This is because lithium sulphur is cheaper, lighter and has a higher density than lithium-ion.

On the negative side it has a short lifespan, which stems from formation of soluble polysulfides with active sulphur in the electrolyte and mechanical degrading cathode materials. Nornickel is developing palladium-based catalysts for both electrolyte and cathode to neutralise sulphur's side effects.

The projected new demand is at least 1.5-million ounces a year after market entry.

AI-driven materials development 

Izotov emphasised Nornickel's focus on generative AI for materials discovery, drawing parallels to pharmaceutical breakthroughs. “The creation of AlphaFold to predict proteins' 3D structure has expanded the protein database from 190 000 to 200-million entries,” he noted.

“Now Nornickel is developing its own proprietary AI platform for predicting properties of PGM non-organic materials and alloys based on a vast dataset of testing results and industrial expertise.”

Models based on AI can significantly streamline the search for optimal palladium–carbon‑nanotube composites by predicting their electroconductivity and interface stability, as well as the optimal form, position and size at which carbon nanotubes should be distributed within the palladium crystal structure. The resulting composite will feature enhanced conductivity, positioning palladium as a viable replacement for the nine-million ounces of gold consumed annually in the microelectronics industry.

Collaboration is underway with leading material science university teams to develop an AI platform for palladium and PGM-based materials, though it is acknowledged that the challenge is greater than in pharmaceuticals owing to what is described as “limited real-world experimental data”.

Demand beyond autocatalysts 

The Palladium Center was established  in 2023 in response to automotive electrification trends. "We understood that we need to launch some massive market development programme to support palladium in new industrial applications," Izotov said, "because we understood that platinum was already pretty diversified, but for palladium the biggest share of the market was always autocatalysts."

As reported in the past by Mining Weekly, the center set a target to create 1.7-million ounces of new annual palladium demand by launching 15 new projects annually for commercially viable palladium-based materials and 30 active projects spanning various application areas are now in place.

Glass industry 

The glass industry represents the most advanced market development effort. Currently, eight-million ounces of primarily platinum and rhodium are used in fiberglass, optical, technical, and display glass production.

Developed are palladium-platinum alloys strengthened with special additives to address palladium's lower melting point and reduced stability at the high temperatures required for glass production (1 300 °C for fiberglass).

Commercial traction is accelerating. In 2025, Chinese companies purchased 20 000 oz of palladium for the first installation phase of fiberglass production leads.

Three hundred days industrial testing at one of China's largest production facilities proved successful, and the industry is now transitioning from platinum- to palladium-based leads.

Major industrial testing of the main palladium-platinum alloys for bushings begins in April 2026 and will continue throughout the year.

Projected demand is 0.8-million ounces from adoption of fiberglass bushings in China and up to two-million ounces is the total potential across fiberglass, optical, technical, and display glass.

The fast adoption cycle is aided by fiberglass equipment's one-year lifespan, enabling rapid switching compared with some oil and chemical catalysts with eight-year lifecycles.

Electrochemistry 

The three-component palladium-iridium-ruthenium anodes that have been developed reduce iridium content, making them 15% cheaper and 20% more energy efficient than conventional iridium-ruthenium anodes.

Applications span four electrolysis processes: cathode nickel production, copper foil manufacturing, water disinfection, and chlor-alkali processes.

First commercial installations of palladium-based anodes for water disinfection are operating at Russian water treatment plants, with Chinese producers beginning adoption. Development work continues on the remaining applications.

Projected new mid-term demand is from 0.2-million to 0.3-million ounces.

Development approach 

Nornickel’s hybrid research and development model involves partnering with external scientific groups for each specific project, while fundamental palladium competencies are maintained through a palladium laboratory, which uses AI-enhanced capabilities for developing catalysts, alloys, and functional materials.

This approach has accelerated time-to-market significantly, with lab prototypes being made in nine months compared with 18 to 24 months. The electrochemistry water disinfection project moved from concept to 500 installed anodes in 14 months compared with a typical five to ten years.

Production facilities are not built lifecycle ends when other manufacturers are licensed.

The developing team is deployed to make laboratory prototypes and then another team is used for semi-industrial scale-up. Prototypes are then forwarded to Chinese customers for testing.

Investment and production context 

Nornickel has committed $100-million to the first phase of its palladium demand development programme amid the company producing 85 t, or 2.7-million ounces, of palladium a year, which represents roughly 40% of global primary palladium production.

More than half of the metals basket goes to Asia, primarily China, up from 25% previously.

The 1.7-million-ounce target represents demand creation for the global palladium market.

Global palladium demand totals 250 t, or nine-million ounces, with about 80% currently consumed by autocatalysis.

Market outlook 

Nornickel anticipates slower-than-expected battery electric vehicle adoption and growing hybrid vehicle penetration, which benefits palladium demand as hybrids require both catalysts and nickel batteries.

Demand diversification beyond autocatalysis is gradually increasing as palladium finds applications in glass, electrochemistry, and emerging technologies.

In the longer term, Nornickel views new demand development through the Palladium Center's applications portfolio as key to maintaining market balance.

The PGMs Industry Day in Johannesburg brought together CEOs and senior executives from major producers including Valterra Platinum, Impala Platinum, Sibanye-Stillwater, Zimplats, Ivanhoe Mines, African Rainbow Minerals, and Southern Palladium, alongside representatives from Umicore, Toyota, Heraeus, McKinsey, Standard Chartered, and other industry participants.

Discussion topics spanned the current PGM market cycle, the impact of high precious metals prices on investment decisions and demand patterns, hybrid vehicle prospects, and new technology directions including hydrogen energy, solar energy, microelectronics, and other industrial applications beyond automotive catalysts.