By: Ecofin Agency

A consensus is taking hold across the cobalt industry, from major trading centers to specialist organizations: the global market is heading back into deficit. The International Energy Agency now shares that assessment, forecasting a supply shortfall beginning in 2026 after several years of oversupply. That outlook puts the Democratic Republic of Congo’s strategy at the center of shifting market dynamics as Kinshasa seeks to turn its mineral advantage into a source of influence.

The agency outlined the potential shift in its “Global Minerals Outlook 2026,” published this month, echoing a similar assessment issued by the Cobalt Institute in June. Both analyses point to restrictions on Congolese supply, production disruptions in Indonesia and elsewhere, and demand that is expected to remain strong. They pay particular attention to the DRC, which accounts for about 70% of global supply of the metal, a key input for electric vehicle batteries, energy storage systems, electronics and defense applications.

That dominant position now gives Kinshasa greater leverage over a market in which it is seeking to move beyond its traditional role as a major supplier. Its strategy included a temporary suspension of cobalt exports in 2025, followed by the introduction of a quota system later that year. The stated objective was to temporarily limit the volumes available on the global market and help prices recover after persistent oversupply had weighed heavily on them.

Two Levers That Could Shape the Market

The projected deficit could deepen the supply pressures that have emerged since the new Congolese policy took effect. According to the IEA, restrictions stemming from the DRC’s export ban helped support prices, which reached nearly $58,000 per metric ton in the first quarter of 2026, more than triple their level a year earlier. A sustained shift into deficit would tighten supply further and could keep prices elevated, in line with Kinshasa’s original objective.

Beyond their effect on prices, expectations of a deficit place future decisions by Congolese policymakers at the heart of market dynamics. In its analysis, the Cobalt Institute estimates that the shortfall would remain relatively limited, at about 16,000 metric tons, under a scenario that includes all available global mine supply and does not account for restrictions on Congolese exports. The deficit would reach 80,000 tons, or about 27% of global demand, under a scenario that counts only the volumes permitted under the DRC’s quota system.

That gap illustrates how much influence the DRC’s policy could have over global supply. The market’s future balance will depend partly on how Kinshasa manages domestic production and export volumes. Some producers operating in the DRC, including Glencore, have already said they intend to prioritize copper production over cobalt at certain assets because of the current restrictions. The shift reflects the structure of the Congolese industry, where cobalt is primarily extracted as a byproduct of copper production.

If the government relaxes the restrictions, those operators could reassess their strategies and bring additional volumes to market.

The DRC’s export quota for 2026 stands at 96,600 metric tons, below the production levels recorded in recent years: 100,015 tons in 2025 and slightly more than twice that amount in 2024. Of the volumes produced in 2025, however, only 44,333 tons were exported.

Kinshasa also has another lever: the strategic reserve for critical minerals established in 2026. Managed by ARECOMS, the reserve is intended to give the state control over inventories that have accumulated under the export restrictions. The mechanism allows the authority to deduct volumes from mining companies’ export quotas or purchase excess material stockpiled at production sites.

Managing those inventories could become another tool for influencing the market, with Congolese authorities able to determine when and under what conditions the material is released. “This mechanism allows the state to withhold or release volumes depending on price movements. As a result, downstream buyers will need to factor in discretionary interventions by ARECOMS, which could increase medium-term price uncertainty,” the IEA said.

Turning Market Power Into a Real Commercial Advantage

Against this backdrop, the DRC has become even more central to the cobalt market outlook because its policy choices could determine which supply scenario materializes. Beyond the mining companies operating in the country, its regulatory decisions will be closely watched across the value chain, from battery manufacturers such as China’s CATL to automakers including Tesla. Kinshasa must still translate that leverage into greater economic returns at home.

These developments also come as battery chemistries that reduce or eliminate the use of cobalt gain ground in the electric vehicle industry, the metal’s largest end market. These include lithium iron phosphate, or LFP, technology.

The challenge for the DRC is therefore to manage near-term supply constraints without losing ground as battery technology evolves. Local processing is already emerging as one of the options being explored to capture more value beyond mineral extraction, as Eric Kalala, director-general of Entreprise Générale du Cobalt, recently explained in an interview with Ecofin Agency.