By: Creamer media

Kinshasa views the plundering of its mineral wealth as a key driver of the conflict between its forces and Rwanda-backed M23 rebels in eastern Congo that has intensified since January, accusing Kigali of smuggling tens of millions of dollars worth of minerals over the border each month to be sold from Rwanda.

Washington is pushing for a peace agreement between the two sides to be signed this summer, accompanied by minerals deals aimed at bringing billions of dollars of Western investment to the region, Massad Boulos, US President Donald Trump's senior adviser for Africa, told Reuters earlier this month.

He said on X last week that the US had provided the first draft of a deal to both sides, though its contents have not been disclosed.

Two diplomatic sources and one UN source briefed by US officials told Reuters that the negotiations could lead to minerals from what are now artisanal mining zones in eastern Congo being refined and marketed from Rwanda.

"Their (Washington's) point of view is simple: If Rwanda can legitimately benefit from Congo's minerals through processing, it will be less tempted to occupy its neighbour and plunder its minerals," one of the diplomats said.

"And for Congo, industrialization would increase its revenues, improve traceability, and combat the armed groups that currently live off the miners."

A government spokesperson for Congo, which has long said it wants to move away from raw exports and towards local processing, referred questions to the foreign ministry, which did not respond.

A Congolese official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said no cooperation on minerals could happen without the withdrawal of Rwandan troops and "their proxies", a reference to M23, which controls more territory than ever in eastern Congo.

The official said Rwanda would also need to respect "our sovereignty over everything, including our minerals."

For Rwanda, the negotiations could bring a massive inflow of cash that could help it clean up what has until now been a largely illicit sector of its economy. The US, for its part, would be able to secure for itself and its allies deeper access to Congolese mineral assets that are dominated by China.

A US State Department spokesperson said that in a declaration signed in Washington last month, Congo and Rwanda had committed to creating "transparent, formalized, and licit end-to-end mineral value chains (from mine to processed metal) that link both countries, in partnership with the US government and US investors."

Details of the exact scale of investments, and who would be making them, are as yet unclear, but Boulos told Reuters last week that US officials had engaged with "probably up to 30" US investors about "doing business in Rwanda in the mining space," including downstream processing activities.

He said separately that the US International Development Finance Corporation - a body tasked with mobilising private capital to further US foreign policy and national security goals, offering support like debt financing - would "provide full support on these transactions and investments".

The region's long history of violence underscores the risk that any companies taking the leap could be exposed to losses.

ROOT CAUSES

The minerals projects alone won't halt a conflict that stretches back to the 1994 Rwandan genocide, the sources said.

"A mining agreement cannot bring peace. These projects will take three, five or ten years," another diplomat said. "There are immediate problems and root causes that need to be addressed."

Congo, the UN and the US have repeatedly accused Rwanda of profiting from the illegal exploitation of Congolese mineral resources, allegations Kigali denies.

A previous attempt to foster deeper official mining cooperation between Rwanda and Congo four years ago failed.

In June 2021, the two sides signed deals including a memorandum on the joint exploitation and commercialization of Congolese gold between state-owned Sakima and private Rwandan firm Dither.

But Kinshasa suspended the deal in June 2022, citing Rwanda's alleged military support for M23 and the rebel group's capture of the strategic border town of Bunagana.

Rwanda has denied backing M23 but acknowledges deploying "defensive measures" in eastern Congo against Rwandan Hutu militias. Analysts say the most commonly cited group, the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda, no longer poses much of a threat.

One diplomatic source said that from Kigali's point of view, Kinshasa is not a reliable negotiating partner. "The collapse of the Sakima deal bothered them," they said of Rwandan officials.

"Neither country trusts each other," said William Millman, an independent consultant on the tantalum-niobium industry who has visited mines in both countries.

"So unless you've got somebody with a big club, like the United States, they're not going to honour agreements."