By: Zawya

Saudi Arabia's oil revenues are expected to be down 16 per cent y-o-y in the second quarter of 2025, according to an Al Rajhi Capital Research report.  

Oil production averaged around 9.18 mmbpd during the second quarter of 2025, while crude oil prices averaged around $65.2/bbl vis-à-vis $74.3/bbl in the first quarter of 2025, the report said.

Brent prices were down in Q2 2025 due to tariff related uncertainty and production increase. The upstream business is expected to be impacted by lower crude oil prices and the possibility of absence of premium over Brent, partly offset by higher production, said the report. 

On the other hand, downstream business should benefit from the improvement in the refining margins, it said.

"In this backdrop, we anticipate Q2 2025 revenues to be down 16% y-o-y (-8% q-o-q). Adjusted profits (income before minority) are also expected to be lower 17.1% y-o-y and 10.4% q-o-q at SAR88.5 billion ($23.6 billion). 

"Overall, weaker crude oil prices to weigh on upstream performance, albeit partly offset by improvement in downstream owing to better refining margins," it said.