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S&P Flags Oil Market Uncertainty but Sees Stable Credit Backing Vision 2030 Projects

Saudi Arabia’s credit outlook remains stable despite rising fiscal deficits and global oil market uncertainties, according to a new report by S&p global ratings published July 30. The Kingdom retains its sovereign credit rating at ‘A+/Stable/A-1’, underpinned by robust GDP growth projections and strong performance in the banking and corporate sectors.
S&P expects Saudi GDP to grow at an average of 3.5% between 2025 and 2028. However, fiscal deficits are forecast to average 4.4% of GDP during the same period, driven largely by heavy state-led investment under the Vision 2030 programme.
While global oil and gas markets face growing volatility, compounded by U.S. trade policy and increasing OPEC+ output in an oversupplied environment, Saudi Arabia’s domestic financial system is proving resilient.
S&P noted that Saudi banks are increasingly turning to external debt markets to support the funding needs of Vision 2030. “We expect Saudi issuers will continue tapping into the global and local capital markets to finance Vision 2030—assuming no disruptions from the rising geopolitical risk,” said Hina Shoeb, Head of Analytics for Saudi Arabia at S&P Global Ratings. The agency added that it would monitor debt levels closely over the medium to long term.
Corporate sector ratings are expected to remain broadly stable, with project finance activity led by power, water and digital infrastructure developments.
In the insurance space, Saudi companies continue to benefit from investment-grade ratings, but face structural challenges due to high market concentration and low overall penetration. According to S&P, only 5% of total premium income in the Kingdom comes from the life and savings segment, signalling significant room for expansion.
Shoeb added that capital raising and consolidation among midsize and smaller insurers could strengthen the sector’s capital buffers and enable them to better capture future growth.
The report, Saudi Credit Trends: Change In Progress, highlights the evolving financing landscape of the Kingdom, as Vision 2030 reshapes economic priorities and funding strategies.