By: Creamer media

Simandou was officially launched with pomp and a public holiday in November, ahead of elections on December 28, the first since the military coup in 2021 that brought Mamady Doumbouya to power.

The junta leader is standing for president and political analysts say he is the favourite to win, meaning he could be in power for another seven years.

Even without Simandou, the world's largest untapped reserve of iron ore, Guinea is the world's biggest exporter of bauxite, used to make aluminium. Its mining wealth, however, has failed to transform for the better the lives of many of its people.

World Bank data published in 2025 showed more than half the population lived in poverty.

Reuters interviewed a dozen workers and former employees, as well as some senior company sources. Asking not to be named because of the sensitivity of the issue, they said the process of sacking thousands of workers had begun and that the impact was likely to be more severe than in the case of comparable mining projects.

It is a bitter disappointment for those who hoped their lives would be improved for the long term by Simandou's ambitions to produce around 120 million metric tons of iron ore annually, or around 7% of global demand.

Employment peaked at more than 60,000

Employment from Simandou peaked at over 60 000 jobs in 2024 and 2025, companies and government sources told Reuters, as contractors raced to meet deadlines set by Guinea's military rulers to try to fast-track iron ore exports after nearly three decades of delay. 

Fewer than 15,000 people will be needed to run the mines, the ports, and the 670 kilometre railway specially built to allow export from the landlocked project.

The project is run by two consortia – one led by Rio Tinto and the other by the Winning Consortium Simandou, or WCS, comprising mostly Chinese companies. 

The way the work has been organised means the workforce reduction is extreme.

One executive involved said the railway was "a simultaneous spread project," meaning every section was built at the same time, the labour force was ramped up to peak construction, "then falls off a cliff because everything finishes".

WCS, which manages almost all of the railway via more than a dozen subcontractors, did not respond to requests for comment on its workforce.

Rio Tinto, through a joint venture Rio Tinto-Simfer, is in charge of two mine blocks, 78 kilometres of rail connecting them to the main rail network and transshipment facilities at the new port on Guinea's Atlantic coast. In all, it has provided employment for around 25 000 workers, 82% of them Guinean, over the construction phase.

For the operational phase, a spokesperson for Rio Tinto said the Simfer venture was expected to require a workforce of about 6,000 to work in the mine and at a transshipment vessel terminal at the port. The mine and rail construction is scheduled to be completed next year, while work at the port will continue through 2027, the spokesperson said.

Chris Aitchison, managing director at Rio Tinto-Simfer, said he was concerned about the risks raised by sudden job losses, which the industry refers to as demobilisation.

"It's the what's next?" he said. "In other jurisdictions when we demobilise there's a pathway for employees or people that have been engaged in execution to move to other projects."

In comparable projects, such as Mongolia's Oyu Tolgoi copper mine, for example, more diversified economies meant former mining employees had other job options.

Risk of social unrest and accedents

The workforce sources said the job-cutting had begun. In Dantilia, a hub in the Faranah region near Sierra Leone's border, 8 000 of 10 000 workers have lost their jobs the last three months. The other 2 000 have been told their jobs will end in the coming months. 

In Kamara, part of the same district, around 1 500 workers have already been dismissed, the workers said.   

"We are waiting in hope but for now they don't have any solutions, and they haven't promised anything yet," a pick-up driver for the Winning Consortium Simandou told Reuters, asking not to be named. "There is no other job."

Three Western company sources said concern was mounting that reduced staffing could increase the risk of accidents, as well as of social unrest. 

They said they were worried about the likelihood of community protests that could take the form of blockades along the Simandou railway, where trains have already killed cattle, angering local residents who depend on their livestock.

Risk assessments carried out by the consortia in the last six months flagged the places where people or livestock could stray onto tracks and derail trains, prompting the construction of fencing that the original design did not provide for, company sources said.

In March, Reuters reported that a dozen workers had died in accidents during Simandou's railway construction between June 2023 and November 2024. In addition, at least five local residents were killed in traffic accidents involving vehicles from the works.

Rio Tinto and WCS reported a further five worker deaths. 

Mines minister Bouna Sylla said the government was strict with the partners on safety and environmental safeguards.

Government's promises of future employment

Guinea's limited infrastructure, narrow skill base, and lack of income buffers magnify the impact of the sudden loss of jobs.

Speaking to media in the days ahead of Simandou's official launch on November 11, Sylla acknowledged the layoffs would be painful.

"It's not easy for people who've been earning a salary, waking up early for work every day, to suddenly lose it," Sylla said. He outlined government plans for new infrastructure projects, including roads, refineries and power plants, but he did not give any timing.

The official launch at the new export port at Morebaya on Guinea's Atlantic coast was resolutely upbeat, with brass bands, honour guards, traditional dancers and visiting dignitaries. Doumbouya looked on, dressed in a white Guinean boubou tunic.

In an attempt to provide thousands of future jobs, Guinea's military government has touted "Simandou 2040" as a 15-year strategy to transform the country into a diversified economy, based on investment in agriculture, education, transport, technology, finance and health for the entire population.

The government holds a 15% stake in Simandou and the plan's estimated $200-billion cost would be partly funded by mining revenues, although it has said the bulk should come from private capital.

Sylla said Guinea's infrastructure agency the Administration et Contrôle des Grands Projets was working on feasibility studies. The government also commissioned a KPMG report on re-employment programmes, which will be published after the elections, two sources said.

KPMG did not respond to a request for comment. The infrastructure agency said the plans included 3,000 kilometres of new highways to be developed over 15 years.

The long wait for prosperity

But nearly 30 years after Rio started exploring the deposit, the question of whether Simandou can deliver prosperity for most of Guinea is unanswered.

The IMF in its "Selected issues" paper on Guinea's economy, published in May  2024, modelled the macroeconomic effects of Simandou.

It found it could boost the country's real GDP by 26% by 2030, but it also said the reduction in poverty could be minimal at just 0.6 percentage points without active policies to manage the transition.

The project's impact in increasing the number of skilled workers could even lead "to worsening of inequality, especially in rural areas," it said.