By: Economy middle east

Oil prices remained stable during Asian trading on Wednesday, sustaining gains driven by sanctions from the previous session as the market anticipated an upcoming OPEC+ meeting over the weekend. Brent crude dipped by 2 cents, or 0.30 percent, settling at $68.93 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude increased by 18 cents, or 0.27 percent, reaching $65.41 a barrel.

Oil had finished the previous trading session up more than 1 percent after the U.S. enacted new sanctions against a network of shipping companies and vessels led by an Iraqi-Kittitian businessman for smuggling Iranian oil disguised as Iraqi oil.

Additionally, U.S. crude oil stockpiles were projected to have decreased last week, along with inventories of distillates and gasoline.

OPEC+ meeting on the horizon

Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer, Century Financial, told Economy Middle East, “Brent and WTI crude prices are holding steady at approximately $68.80 and $65.15, respectively, following a rally sparked by fresh U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil networks and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries. These geopolitical developments have injected renewed volatility into the market, drawing investor attention ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on September 7, where the group is expected to maintain current production levels after implementing a 547,000 bpd increase for September. At the same time, growing concerns over a potential Q4 oversupply and sluggish Chinese demand are capping upside momentum, positioning oil for continued sideways consolidation until clearer demand signals emerge.” 

He also noted, “WTI crude, currently trading at $65.15, is facing resistance from a descending trendline connecting the highs of June 23, July 30–31, and September 2. This resistance aligns with the 65.139 percent Fibonacci retracement, suggesting bullish intent with a potential target at $67.60. A sustained move above this level could open the path toward $68.90, while a breakdown below $63.20 risks a decline toward $62.69. Brent crude exhibits a similar technical setup, with resistance around $70.84 and a higher target near $72.02. Support is seen at $66.70, with a critical base at $65.40 defining the lower bounds.”

Valecha further stated, “Both contracts show a neutral RSI of 55 on the daily chart, indicating a lack of strong directional momentum but also suggesting volatility compression often a precursor to a breakout. The technical setup favors a slightly bullish scenario, as the market appears to be coiling for a potentially sharp move.” 

Economic data limits oil price gains

However, soft economic data limited price increases. U.S. manufacturing contracted for a sixth consecutive month as President Donald Trump’s tariffs affected business confidence and economic activity, thus impacting the demand outlook for oil.

The market is awaiting the outcomes of a meeting among eight members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies on September 7. Analysts suggest that the group is unlikely to implement further production changes at this time.

On Wednesday morning, Beijing hosted its largest-ever military parade to commemorate 80 years since Japan’s defeat at the conclusion of World War Two, with China’s leader Xi Jinping taking center stage alongside Russia’s Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un.

This event followed the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit held from August 31 to September 1, during which China presented its vision for a new global security and economic order in direct challenge to the U.S.

EIA reports modest inventory decline

Recent data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a modest decline in U.S. crude oil inventories by approximately 0.35 million barrels in the week ending August 1, indicating some tightening of supply supporting prices, although the overall market remains cautious due to persistent economic uncertainties. The American Petroleum Institute’s (API) data showed a larger draw of about 2.4 million barrels in mid-August, greater than forecasted, signaling a potentially stronger demand environment in the U.S., yet mixed with concerns over global economic slowdown.

The OPEC+ coalition has already announced an upcoming production increase of around 547,000 barrels per day starting in September, as part of a planned gradual rollback of earlier voluntary cuts aimed to stabilize market share amid rising non-OPEC output from countries such as the U.S., Brazil, and Canada. This appears to be a delicate balance, intending to prevent a glut that could depress prices while countering the competitive pressures from rising shale and other non-OPEC supplies. The meeting on September 7 is expected to reaffirm this strategy without immediate further production cuts, underscoring a focused approach on market stability.

Implications for energy trade routes

Meanwhile, the broader geopolitical landscape continues to influence oil markets. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit held recently highlighted the growing strategic cooperation among Eurasian powers including China, Russia, and India, emphasizing collective resistance to U.S. dominance in global policy, which may have longer-term implications for energy trade routes, alliances, and market dynamics. The SCO’s expanded role in Eurasian security and economic dialogue signals a shift towards a multipolar world that could reshape global energy supply chains and geopolitical risks.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s August Short-Term Energy Outlook projects Brent crude to average around $67.22 per barrel in 2025, slightly revised down from previous forecasts due to expected inventory builds as OPEC+ boosts production, while early 2026 prices could dip further to low $50s, prompting potential supply adjustments by producers later in the year to maintain market equilibrium.