By: Ecofin agency

The agreement disclosed on September 10 in Addis Ababa by African leaders to explore an OPEC-style coalition of critical mineral producers remains at the starting line. The challenge ahead is now translating ambition into implementation. The stakes are high: without rapid follow-through, Africa risks losing leverage in the global race for clean-energy resources.

Africa controls some of the world’s richest deposits of minerals essential for decarbonization. The Democratic Republic of the Congo accounts for more than 70% of global cobalt, South Africa dominates platinum-group metals, Zimbabwe is scaling up its lithium output, Zambia is a major copper producer, and Morocco supplies 70% of phosphate rock. Guinea’s bauxite, Namibia’s uranium, and Mozambique’s graphite add to the list. These resources underpin electric vehicles, batteries, solar panels, and hydrogen technologies. The International Energy Agency estimates energy uses will account for 85% of demand growth for such minerals by 2030.

The timing is critical. China has established a dominant position in mining stakes and refining capacity, controlling 60% of cobalt refining and over 80% of rare earth processing. It secures supply through debt-for-resources deals and vertical integration. Rivals are moving fast: the U.S. is investing via the Minerals Security Partnership and the Lobito Corridor rail link, the EU is tying raw materials deals to its Critical Raw Materials Act, Japan is financing joint ventures, and Saudi Arabia is acquiring stakes through its Public Investment Fund. For African producers, the coalition could amplify bargaining power—but only if they collaborate instead of cutting bilateral deals.

Demand dynamics underline the urgency. The IEA projects that global demand for lithium could rise fortyfold by 2030, while demand for cobalt, nickel, and graphite is expected to grow 20-25 times. EVs and grid storage are the primary drivers. Independent forecasts project the global critical minerals market to reach $400 billion by 2040, with Africa poised to capture 20-30% of this market share if it develops processing and value-addition capacity. Without coordination, oversupply shocks, price volatility, and continued raw-ore exports could undercut the continent’s opportunity.

Implementation will be the real test. Previous initiatives—the African Mining Vision of 2009 and the Africa Minerals Strategy Group in 2024—outlined bold goals but fell short on enforcement. Both lacked binding rules, financing, or effective secretariats. The proposed coalition must avoid these pitfalls by establishing clear governance structures, setting phased targets, and integrating AfCFTA to move beyond declarations.

Individual country strategies show the potential. The DRC has pledged to process 30% of cobalt locally by 2030. Zambia has banned the export of raw minerals and is banking on the Lobito Corridor to reduce transport costs. Zimbabwe is forcing lithium refiners to invest in-country. South Africa is linking its platinum and manganese to hydrogen technology hubs. These national strategies could gain more weight under a continental framework, but divergences in priorities and economic pressures remain obstacles.

The risks are clear. A fractured coalition could repeat OPEC’s weaknesses, where infighting undermines discipline. Infrastructure gaps—such as power shortages in the DRC and Zambia—threaten scaling. Geopolitical rivalries between the U.S., EU, China, and Gulf investors could play African states against each other. Yet the upside is equally clear: coordinated action could drive gigafactory investments, secure higher royalties, and channel mineral wealth into jobs and climate resilience.

Africa’s mineral bloc will stand or fall on execution. The Addis Ababa launch was only a first step. Unless a binding framework emerges by 2026, global buyers will continue to dictate terms, and the continent will remain a price taker. With the clean-energy economy racing ahead, this coalition is not optional—it is Africa’s chance to shape its own future in minerals.